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domenica 27 aprile 2014

Iran: Economic crisis puts an end to Rohani's honeymoon !!!

According to " Le Point.Fr "
Hassan Rohani had promised to revive a lead by Western sanctions , but eight months after his election to the presidency of Iran , no major improvement is in sight and the frustration builds within the economy population .
Rohani , a religious moderate , engaged in a dialogue with the West since he took office in August of 2013 , breaking with the policy of his predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad , whose dual mandate was marked by confrontation.
Tehran wants to quickly reach a final agreement with the major powers of the Group 5 +1 (China, USA, France , UK, Russia and Germany) on Iran's nuclear program , suspected of hiding a military component , and let rise sanctions choke ' economy for several years.
At the national level , the first steps have reduced inflation to 34.7 % in March (-5.7% yoy) and the exchange rate of foreign currency has stabilized.
But if , on the whole , international institutions believe that growth prospects are positive for several months, many Iranians make sure that their situation has not changed since most of the sanctions remain in force, and the economy is still in recession.
In the markets and bazaars of the capital, the frustration has replaced the sense of hope that comes from the election of Mr. Rohani and signed an agreement in late 2013, with the 5 +1 group which lifted some sanctions .
 "No better than before " -
" It 's like , " summarizes Pakmiat Nahid , a retired employee of a university , who lives in Ali Abad district of middle-class south of Tehran.
"There is a big gap in society, adds the young retired 55 years . Rising meat prices unsustainable , chicken or other raw materials " for the middle class or poor.
A Mokhtari , a poor district of the city , the effects of the agreement with the major powers are invisible. "The prices will not stop climbing and my sales are heard. S ' Life is better than before ," complained Ali Heydari , owner of a grocery store.
Even if the potion is bitter , the government remains committed to major reforms , such as the drastic reduction of government subsidies for energy , fuels and commodities consumer , who first hit the poorest.
Since the beginning of Iran , on March 21 the price of electricity and gas has increased by about 25%. Last Friday, a 75% increase in fuel prices was announced. Two days earlier, the president had suffered his first political setback , 95% of Iranians who held this year in government assistance $ 14 per month per capita. The government had even called to give the most favored categories of aid.
- " Patience " -
Although the immediate impact on the price cuts in subsidies , analysts believe that these austerity measures are needed to boost the economy .
Some politicians have also denounced the mismanagement of the previous administration .
" Times are tough , we are in a period of stagflation and it is difficult to implement an economic policy under these conditions for all measures that promote the growth will generate inflation," he told AFP Ramin Rabii , CEO turquoise Partners investment funds.
If the fight against inflation remains a priority Rohani , who wants to reduce the rate to 25 % in March 2015, recent price increases should cause a new epidemic , says Mr. Rabii , noting that the government has few options.
"It ' a matter of patience ," he adds . It also warns of excessive hopes , perhaps a nuclear deal in July , despite the optimism .
Western businessmen based in Iran, welcomed by AFP , are also concerned about the failure of negotiations between Iran and the 5 +1 .
And even if they are in agreement , they worry about the pressure that extremists plan would put the government if the economic situation does not improve quickly.

  1. Hassan Rouhani
    Presidente dell'Iran