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domenica 13 settembre 2015

If the oil price continues to fall, even the social and economic tensions to rise again.

Francis Perrin : si la chute du pétrole se poursuit en Algérie, « le risque de tensions sociales et politiques est clair »Francis Perrin, Executive Editor of the Arab Oil and Gas, interviewed by Jeune Afrique on oil prices falling and the consequences thereof for the Algerian economy.
Jeune Afrique: Oil prices are down to $ 43 last week. There are risks that the plunge in the course again in the coming months?

Francis Perrin: We can not in fact excluding a further decline during this year or in 2016. The other two most likely scenarios are maintaining courses at their current level or increased slightly. By contrast, it is not clear that in the short term might lead to a significant increase in crude oil prices. Besides the excess of supply over demand for oil and the refusal of OPEC to cut production, the main bearish factors are the prospect of a sharp increase in oil production and exports of Iran in 2016 and the economic slowdown China.

What are the direct impacts of this fall on the finances of Algeria?

A sharp reduction in export revenues, the deficit of the trade balance and balance of payments, a reduction in foreign exchange reserves, increasing the budget deficit and a decline in the resources of the oil stabilization fund. The record is dark even though Algeria maintains substantial foreign exchange reserves and if its external debt is very low. But these trends are very worrying.

There are risks of social and political tensions in the event of a permanent fall in oil?

Oil and natural gas account for over 95% of exports of Algeria and about 60% of budget revenues. If oil prices were to remain very low in a sustainable way, the heart-rending revisions would be needed in Algeria and other countries in the developing world producers. This could increase social discontent. The risk of social and political tension is clear, though, in this area, there is neither automatic nor inevitable.