Algeria does not figure in the study of the World Bank published in the "Quarterly bulletin of economic information in the MENA region," but it is obvious that it is part of the "losers" of the falling oil prices.
The authorities have, themselves, took note of the fact that there is now a "price crisis" whose duration is still unpredictable. But the study examines the case of populous countries whose situations are similar or close to Algeria, like Iran, Iraq, where oil is essential for state spending and the economy so overall.
"An unprecedented gravity ..."
In general, the paper cools a little hopes expressed in Algeria to attend a rally in oil prices in six months, noting that in the futures market, the available oil prices in August 2015 was 56 dollars. "There is little reason to expect a recovery in oil prices."
"The gravity of the oil price fall is almost unprecedented - second only to that of 2008, when prices increased from $ 148 to $ 40 a barrel," says the study identifies three reasons given for the collapse of price: increased US production of shale oil, change of policy towards OPEC defending market share and ultimately weak global demand due to sluggish global growth.
Exit therefore a rise in oil prices in a short horizon. But while the Algerian government still does not envisage a rise in prices of fuels and energy in general, the study shows that removal of energy subsidies and fuel is one of the responses to oil states the sharp drop in revenue.
Even Saudi Arabia with its reserves of $ 700 billion "is preparing to raise prices of energy and fuel and to increase the profitability of the income of non-oil products, particularly through fees and charges ".
The IMF study cites as a positive step that the "parliament" of Tripoli is planning to "eliminate subsidies for fossil fuels," a measure that could contribute to help the state close the widening gap between expenditures and revenues.
Iran, subject to sanctions, has already begun the movement towards adjustment of domestic prices.
The increase, progressive, fuel prices and electricity is regularly recommended by Algerian experts to reduce public spending and also tackling the waste of energy and fuel in traffic.
Recently two economists have advocated an "increase in a gradual but substantial," the price of gasoline to "remove its unfair subsidy" and "reducing energy consumption and waste."