While OPEC argues for crude oil prices remain an uptrend, this proposal is not for Saudi Arabia, which continues to defend its policy to put pressure on countries such as Russia and Iran, the United States. Even at $ 20 a barrel, Saudi Arabia will not lower its production, and the world will never see Brent at $ 100. Why?
The POURQUOI ARABIE SAOUDITE NE PAS VEUT baisser SA PRODUCTION? : The Arabie Saoudite, the gendarme du marché pétrolier
Even at $ 20 a barrel, Saudi Arabia will not lower its production, the Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi said. In addition to a last minute change in the energy policy of Saudi Arabia, following the appointment of Salman at the head of the country, Saudi Arabia will not change its rate of production, according to some experts who believe that the world saw again Brent at $ 100.
According to Ali al-Naimi, who spoke to the magazine '' Middle East Economic Survey, '' last mid-December, is not in the interest of the producers of OPEC to reduce their production, whatever the price, because if l 'Saudi Arabia has begun to decrease its production are the western countries that come out winners in this war of oil prices, "percentage distribution of prices on the rise, and Russian, Brazilian and US shale oil producers would take us," said the Saudi minister. Explaining that Saudi Arabia, like other Gulf countries could easily withstand the extremely low price of oil per barrel since the cost of production is 4 to $ 5 for them. Conversely, the production cost of US shale oil is estimated between 70 and 80 dollars. "They will be injured before we felt any pain," he began.
To support prices, it was necessary that Saudi Arabia loses $ 800 million a day!
When Saudi Arabia decided in 1981 to slash its oil production to support prices fall for a year, 80% of oil revenues would literally parts fumée.car needed an oil price of at least 3 the figures for the stability of its oil revenues. CAD 8 million barrels per day at $ 100. This makes the value of 800 million dollars a day.
Indeed, while its oil production to 10.2 million barrels per day in 1981-3800000 bpd in 1985, down 63%, oil prices have fallen by 43% $ 105 a barrel to $ 60 a barrel . All in all it is almost 80% of oil revenues of Saudi Arabia, who disappeared four years.
When on November 27, while the price of oil at $ 80 a barrel, Saudi Arabia should decide whether you should amputate its production by 20%, ie 2 million barrels a day, its old demons of the early '80 were recalled for his good memory to suggest that he was then to be sure that the increase in oil prices caused by the decline in production would at least compensate for this lack to win - so it needs a three-digit oil prices, at least for the stability of its oil revenues. 10 million barrels per day X $ 80 = 8 million barrels per day x $ 100.
Nothing is less certain with the US production of shale oil, which continues to increase, but also that of Russia, which flies to record highs after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991. Saudi Arabia will pay longer for the other . She prefers the opposite scenario, which is likely to materialize in 2015 in the United States, with the explosion of bubbles shale oil, orphan of oil over $ 100 to continue to swell.