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venerdì 18 dicembre 2015

Syndrome of 1986: should we be worried?

0a3483d7c7195a9f91073edb21d30084_XL.jpgThe drop in oil prices to $ 37 a barrel this week, is as strong as the emotions and former general threats ancient guardians of the temple system.
Thus, the first memory that comes to mind is the 1986 crisis.
We can compare, however, the two terms? There is a risk that the story again? Many observers, in a process that corresponds to a historical analysis more or less consistent, attempt to make the connection between the two "crisis". They then provide for a catastrophic outcome to this situation, after two or three years, as was the case in 1986, when the collapse of prices per barrel. However, the comparison between the two phases is unconvincing or quite severe. Why?
Because in 1986, ie, after only six years of Chadlisme, the country was in a very serious financial situation of asphyxiation. Debt, external and internal, not less than $ 25000000000 of foreign debt, amounting to more than $ 100 billion in today's currency, the national fiscal deficit and balance commercialeextérieure, a sector that can not be renewed and then factories work at a loss, that is, as a general failure, tremendous lack of water, due to a small investment in water resources secteurdes, and then a very affected and weakened agriculture, etc.
Often in my analysis underdevelopment which marks the third world countries, surplus causesendogènes very complex and linked to many exogenous parameters that have accumulated over the centuries to form constraints, severe enough to hinder the advanced of these countries at a pace that allows them get out of this poverty. However, governance reckless Bendjdid Chadli did not help things. "For a better life" is the slogan widely shown at the beginning of his reign, which was a waste of resources in currency unprecedented. Sure, people ate kiwi and bananas, a luxury at that time, but for a short period of time. Large infrastructure projects such as barrageshydrauliques were not a priority of the government!
In short, the rulers of that time could not prepare the country for such a shock, given that oil prices in the early 1980s was as high as in 2008! In fact, a barrel of Brentoscillait between 20 and 30 dollars, the equivalent of more than 80 100 dollars today. And, oddly enough, it has not been spared from substantial foreign exchange reserves, or even pay the debt!
Today, the situation is the opposite of this. At least the large amount of infrastructure construction, the barrageshydrauliques is an illustration. That will help the country to continue its efforts, despite the difficult economic situation, to achieve self-sufficiency in the next few years. With almost no debt, foreign exchange reserves is also a central element in the strategy Bouteflikisme. $ 151 billion is not an insignificant sum, it will allow the country résisterpendant over six years with a barrel to $ 37. It is true that the impact of these major challenges will be felt by much of the population. Because public spending, which is the structure of the Algerian economy, should be reduced to minimize the extent of the deficit. Therefore, the real challenge of the government is to meet these limits, particularly in terms of employment, because unemployment relatively increase. But the government has a great maneuver which most social protection will mitigate the negative consequences of these reforms. Therefore, the fundamental question in this specific topic, the ability of the government to pass this Estla grandegabegie subsidies for everyone, including smuggling, a more focused and rational subsidy which targets the most vulnerable and the middle classes. The latest proposal of the Minister of Finance "additional resources" about ten million workers a subsidized price of gradual release is an initiative that deserves to be considered. Also, the shape of these "supplements wages", which must respect the dignity of citizens, preventing social protection turns into charity through vouchers or ration cards! The most respectful way is bank transfers.
Politically, the contrast is striking. In 1986, the country was under a dictatorship, a single party under the command of the military. Torture was common, the arbitrariness and "hogra" without freedom of speech are its characteristics, thousands of political prisoners, etc. Economic or political decisions are made behind closed doors. No one knew what was going on from the Seraglio, sometimes not even the late President Chadli! So, inevitably and Uncle Sam, it was decided to open the country to a multiparty system, an opening without laws, without taboos, without limits or regulatory authority worthy of the name, nothing! We wanted to be more democratic than the US and UK! Naivety? Western democracy, which is the reference in the field, has jamaistoléré absolute freedom, there were always very restrictive laws, taboos, prohibitions and clear on. While the government Mouloud Hamrouche has "offered" to all approvals, anyone can do politics. Including those who refute the policy, they believe that it is sin! People then have prissa revenge against this régime.On know the rest of the story. Perhaps it is not yet time to take stock of this painful period in the history of our country, the wounds are still open.
On the contrary, with all its weaknesses, the Algerian scènepolitique today is more organized, more mature. We have recently seen how classepolitique responded, with a few discordant voices very isolated, the ex-general provocations. Who could build a single dinar there ten years on the bet that calls Khaled and Mohammed Nezzar Mediène will have no say in Algeria! Dignity prevailed on terror. Whatever can be said about the failures, mistakes, weaknesses and all aspectsnégatifs past decade, but the situation seems to mastery. Terrorism was pratiquementannihilé, but there are still some pockets nuisanceest their very low capacity. All political parties in the agreements or not parliamentary opposition are on the red line, which is violence or infringe public order. The people, too, is aware. In addition, the ability of rulers to continue to play with the method of the "carrot and stick" against workers, unemployed revendicationssociaux, students and non or badly housed. The occasion of the revision of the Constitution is a historic moment in the consolidation of these democratic gains. To end forever the infinite and transient cycles to build a strong state of its laws and institutions.
Objectively, the current government has lost a lot of time wasted too much money, we could do much better. However, it is clear that the degree is the final between the two situations. In a moment of debt, corruption, serious economic crisis, the will and the torture that was suddenly transformed into a haven of "anything goes", including "Islamic police" and a time of current with all its faults and failures: overload import, corruption, embezzlement scandals, laxity of the state and the lack of imagination criant.Mais, still without debt, resulting in foreign exchange reserves, large infrastructure projects, sustainable civil peace, freedom and regulation. You can be for or against, but the facts are there.
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