According to "Le Quotidien d'Oran"
Experts were on their knees, on Thursday in Vienna at the end of the Ministerial Conference of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which has decided to essentially "do nothing" to raise oil prices, the lowest since less than 80 months dollars per barrel.
Furthermore caricatured image of the powerful Saudi oil minister Ali al-Nuaimi, who, after a five-hour meeting, he said, smiling to the press: ". This is the right decision" In other words, what he had learned experts and some members of the organization, including Venezuela, Algeria and Iran, turned right, namely, the maintenance of current production ceiling to 30 million barrels a day when the market collapsed by a continuous decline in prices from 'early autumn. Leading countries in Saudi Arabia in favor of maintaining the current production ceiling, but has the largest share of production (+ 8 mbd), has weighed on the final decision, while the market was expecting a scare OPEC to cut its ceiling production, with a more rigorous monitoring of compliance with quotas by member countries. It did not happen and the market was the first to answer this route with Brent (crude North Sea), which has lost three dollars, to below $ 75, the lowest since September 2010. The decline immediately following the course market timing in this global oversupply in the coming months, at least until next June, when the next OPEC meeting. As for the US light crude oil (light sweet crude), retreated to $ 70.75, the lowest since June 2010. The crude Algerian Saharan Blend, worth about 79-80 dollars / barrel. In the background, the decision of OPEC, which, in fact, applies the energy policy Riyadh, is that the Gulf countries, Saudi Arabia in the head, which had made it clear that they were willing to endure a prolonged period low prices. For these countries, unilaterally reduce the production of organization, which represents a third of global supply, would take the risk of giving up market share to other manufacturers, including North America, and Russia, not a member of OPEC, which produces just over 10 million barrels per day, or 11% of world production, and have no plans to reduce production. ?? 'On the contrary, maintaining the current quotas could trigger a battle for market share,' 'say experts, who point out that the producing countries of the Gulf ?? "have reserves that allow them to recover the impact of a price war, but will certainly be more painful for the other members of the organization. ''" For us, this means that Saudi Arabia is trying to push through the idea that we are disappointed in the short term, with a floor at $ 60 per barrel, in order to have more stability in the coming years, or more than $ 80, "says his side a consultant for the US market. He added in other words, ?? is in the interest of OPEC to accommodate lower prices for some time to slow the development of projects (shale) in the United States ".finestra dropdown But this situation, which confirms the continued decline in prices oil since last June the dual effect of a plentiful supply with the placing on the market of the US shale oil and a slowdown in growth, and therefore demand, Europe and China, has very serious consequences for small producers of OPEC. Worse, as the secretary general of OPEC, Abdullah al-Badri, the organization has "no target" in response to a question on the threshold of $ 100 per barrel would be the ideal reference current. And as bad news is not enough, the final communiqué of the meeting of OPEC makes no mention of the need for member countries to respect the limit of official production of 30 million barrels per day (BPD).
ALGERIA, THE GREAT STRESS
While it is too early to define the effects of crude oil prices plunge on oil revenues Algeria, the fact remains that the scenarios have already been implemented, although the group Sonatrach, the atmosphere is not to worry. For the time being. According to the interim CEO of the Algerian oil group, said Sahnoune, revenue ?? 'should remain around $ 60 billion entity (??) the stabilization of prices (of oil) to intervene.' '?? 'In the first nine months of 2014, we produced 5% more than what was produced in 2013. For the last three or four years, this is the first time that you get to make a turnaround,' 'he said . More specifically, the average price of crude oil was $ 109.28 Algerian between January and July 2014 against $ 107.68 during the same period in 2013. But the trend was reversed in September, the average price of oil fell by Algeria more than $ 3 to $ 97.10 a barrel. However, what worries experts is that oil revenues Algeria will experience a drastic drop and then a more rapid reduction of taxes for oil, as planned in the general budget of the State for the oil stabilization fund (FRR) consists of the the difference between the price of crude oil represented by the Finance Act 2014 ($ 37 / barrel) and the price of real gross market. This strategy has been implemented by Algeria after the last oil crisis, when prices had reached the abyss of $ 10 / barrel. During the first half of 2014, revenues from oil taxes were $ 1.870 billion dinars (about 23.5 billion dollars), down 10% compared to the same period of 2013 (2.086 million dinars) says a report by the Ministry of Finance that 292 billion dinars were paid to the FRR against 470.3 billion dinars in 2013, while about 1.87 trillion dinars 1.5777 trillion dinars were paid to the state budget for the same period, according to forecasts of the Finance Act 2014. Clearly, revenue activities in Algeria, which produces no more than 1,250 MBJ should be influenced in one way or another by a gross surplus production on the market and prices below $ 70. For the first actual prices may soon reach the levels of reference for the calculation of crude financial law, namely, the $ 37 / barrel.