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martedì 29 settembre 2015

Economic crisis: an uncertain future, hard and alarming

Crise économique: Un avenir incertain, rude et alarmant

For several days or months, everyone has their own little analysis stating that the decline in oil prices will result in Algeria, in particular those with an uncertain future.
Others, however, especially on the side of dissent, trying to minimize the crisis and talk of revising the "rationalization of expenditure." Not to speak of austerity, crisis, failure of the budget, a good sign or otherwise leaked in advance a lean times only the citizen, especially scarce means will face during the very difficult times, as was the case in the past.

According to the international expert Dr. Abderrahmane Mebtoul "Algeria through one of the most crucial stages of its history, faced internal transfers, as geostrategic tensions in the region."

The expert stressed that the particular context of the crisis is not the same as the year 1980. He explained that "there is a difference between the period 1986 and the current situation, the stock of debt in 2015 (capital and services) It is less than 4 billion and domestic debt, less than $ 1 billion in foreign reserves will close even declining trends in the value of imports of goods and services (see customs statistics published September 21, 2015 for the first eight months) between 135 / 140 billion at the end of 2015.

It will be well used, to be a social safety net, to avoid coming face to the IMF in 2018 conducting current and urgently important structural reforms. "With regard to the purchasing power, the main concern of the ordinary citizen, Dr. Mebtoul announces that" for small grants, the situation is bitter.

In the absence of mechanisms of regulation and control, great prices of consumer products are aware, as usual, especially on the eve of the month of Ramadhan, religious holidays and the approach of social returns, the unprecedented increases, organizations should do traders who have a limited impact, preaching in the desert.

This is the reality for most families is that inflation for basic goods has a direct impact on purchasing power. The price increase is considered one of the important reasons for the direct conversion of latent uneasiness in urban riots. "

The expert identified four reasons for inflation in Algeria. For him: "First, inflation is no proportionality between public spending and the economic and social impacts with a growth rate not exceeding 2.3% average 2004/2015 when it should exceed 10% of the function ' importance of public spending. This obviously has an impact on both the rate of inflation on the real unemployment rate is much higher than the official rate.

A recent OECD study clearly demonstrates, in some Mediterranean countries, such as Algeria spends twice as much for half the results: projects aimed badly, the infrastructure is only a means, a mixed government, enterprise and knowledge devalued, especially corruption and mismanagement that has socialized. "