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mercoledì 5 febbraio 2014

The army and the Algerian security forces face new geostrategic upheavals!!!!

When a controversy exists on the role of security forces in Algeria harmful to the country , the Euro- Mediterranean and Euro-African knows geostrategic upheavals with conflicts at the gates of Algeria .
Safety basis for the development of Algeria is asked to exceed personal conflicts for income distribution and focus only the best interests of the country. Is that the threats to the people and their states and collective challenges that are thrown to them must bring Algeria to adopt a common defense policy , a foreign policy and socio -economic policy comprehensive to meet the new challenges.

In this context, " the National People's Army (which includes security services , is utopian to dissociate ) a permanent mission to safeguard national independence and the defense of national sovereignty. She is responsible for ensuring the defense of the unity and territorial integrity of the country and the protection of its terrestrial space, airspace and different areas of the maritime domain. (Article 25 of the Algerian Constitution). The purpose of this modest contribution , highly topical , often a taboo subject , I will have the opportunity to develop in detail in an international journal "defense" is to try

1.- What is the amount of global military spending ?

According to Wikipedia, through the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute for the period 2000/2010 , we have the following classification for the sale of weapons : the United States ( 30 % of the global arms exports over the last 10 years - Russia (26 % market share) . , Germany (8 % market share) , France (7 % market share) , China (4 % market share) , United Kingdom ( 4 % of the market ) - Italy (2 % of the market ) Israel (2 % market share) , Sweden (2 % of the market ) - Ukraine (2 % of the market ) . - Rest of the world (13 % of the market ) .

But of '' The latest assessments of defense budgets published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute ( SIPRI ) April 15, 2013 , world military expenditure reached 1,753 billion in 2012, representing a decrease of 0.5 % since 2011. All NATO member states have spent nearly 1,000 billion.

Among the " G-10 " (USA , China, Russia , Britain , Japan, France , Saudi Arabia, India, Germany, Italy) whose military expenditure is equivalent to three - quarters of the world spends , the United States spends more than the other nine met with about 40% of the world total 682 billion. Why this slight decrease miliary spending?

This decrease is mainly due to significant spending cuts imposed by the global economic crisis . U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel announced a cut of 41 billion dollars in the U.S. defense budget and additional savings of about $ 500 billion over the next decade. This is certainly related to the debt crisis with global reach amount in 2014 according to the IMF , 110 % of global GDP or about 78.000 billion. But also the end of military operations in Iraq , the ongoing withdrawal of U.S. forces in Afghanistan by military experts have contributed to the 69% increase in real terms of U.S. military spending since the beginning of the war against terrorism 2001. This official decline , sales of weapons is also announced in Europe spends about $ 286 billion for defense , where between 2008 /2012, 18 of the 31 members of the European Union or NATO states have reduced their spending about 10% in real terms. For example, in France , the budget fell $ 62.7 billion in 2011, $ 58.7 billion in 2012 , pending the publication of the new White Paper that new drastic cuts would be provided in particular in terms of downsizing . To counter this decline in Europe instruments such as the pooling and sharing of military equipment , development and joint production to reduce costs without significantly reducing response capability .

But this setback should not obscure the American and European as strategy whose goal is to provide military industry. For we must not delude ourselves , existing redevelopment of the armed forces to meet new requirements. In this context, despite the relative decline in spending .

2.- A shift in the purchase and production of weapons

Some Gulf countries because of their affluence deputizing for some conflicts they have ideological interests not by philanthropy (divergence Qatar / Saudi Arabia) , lack of funding and everyone knows the war in Iraq or Libya been largely financed by the Gulf countries . Power rivalries that both internal and geopolitical level ( case of the recent conflict between the Syrian duo Russia / China and USA / Europe) and conflicts in the four corners of the world ( some African leaders interposed by population , engaged in fratricidal wars ) feed industry.

Leading buyers of weapons, are Oman , Saudi Arabia , other Middle Eastern countries including Israel and Iran, a large fraction of military spending in North Africa , Latin America , including Paraguay and Mexico in particular . In addition we must not forget that this decline in spending in Western countries value is offset by growth in Asia in particular . China ranks second to reach in 2012 166 billion and East Asia spent $ 302 billion military spending.

Russia ranked third with 90.6 billion dollars in 2012 with 4.4 % of GDP. Thus, we are witnessing what could be the beginning of a shift in the balance of global military spending, rich Western countries to emerging regions.

3.- The role of intelligence services

Intelligence services in any viable country , is not only the backbone of an army but the backbone of any state but within the framework of the rule of law .

We assist in all modern countries need to adapt to the transition from the hierarchical organization of the armed forces, and network organization parallel to the adaptation intelligence Any country that destroys its intelligence services or adapting not reduced its capacity to respond to threats. The recent experience of wiretapping U.S. spying on everyone ( but do not be surprised , it has existed since the world began but this practice knows with new technology a global expansion) , is demonstrated . Unlike some gratuitous assertions , it is recognized that major decisions as political, economic and military superpowers , Barack Obama (USA ), Vladimir Putin (Russia), François Hollande France ) to take action on the reports of the CIA, the KGB and 2nd office.

The Ministry of State Security , China , gathering missions against espionage and foreign intelligence purpose displayed support the economic effort of countries within the Commission for Science for , Technology and Industry for National Defense- COSTIND - setting in place since 1982.

The Algerian intelligence services must adapt to the new global mutations. With new technologies , we are witnessing the risk of cyber attacks although Algeria electronic services (e-commerce , e- health and e-government ) are still virtually non-existent , the Algerian companies still operating under outdated management practices years 1970/1980 are not yet oriented transactions and other electronic services. The services also have a mission to fight against the burgeoning arms trafficking also intimately linked to drug trafficking as a source of such funding terrorist groups, often money deposited in tax havens like all forms of corruption . According to Oxfam , 640 million small arms are scattered throughout the world and for some experts there would be 80,000 Kalashnikovs in circulation in the Sahel region , with prices ranging from 200 euros for Kalashes unlicensed (counterfeit ) and 300 for the Russian Kalach but also sophisticated weapons . The recent Libyan experience and the Sahel is the demonstration.

For example , in 2011 , the Algerian army arrested 214 people accused of smuggling weapons into the south and east of the border and dismantled 10 gangs specialized in the trafficking of weapons and explosives, having seized 1,500 weapons and equivalent amounts of ammunition. Beginning in August 2013 , a Ministry of National Defence (DND) announced that a large quantity of arms and ammunition was seized Wednesday in Djanet ( Illizi ) including quote " a heavy machine gun 12.7 mm FM a machine gun , a repeating rifle and a large quantity of ammunition of different calibers and a large number of rockets RPG7s . "

A new 24 October 2013 new weapons seizure near the Libyan border. Where according to Reuters news agency , a large weapons cache Illizi , about 200 km from the complex gas Amenas including a hundred anti-aircraft missiles, as well as hundreds of anti-helicopter rockets, mines land and rocket-propelled grenades . These illegal purchases are often made ​​through drug trafficking . According to statistics provided by the DGNS nearly 57 tonnes of cannabis resin , 1 kg of heroin , 8 kg of cocaine and 267,234 tablets of psychotropic drugs have been seized by the Algerian security services during 2012, and during the first six months of 2013, 15 tonnes of cannabis resin , making an urgent international cooperation , Algeria can not bear alone all these costs at the expense of development.

4 - . What the Algerian military spending ?

Increasing the Algerian military spending is closely linked to geopolitical tensions on its borders : the border Algeria / Mali is 1376 km, Algeria / Morocco 1 559 km

Algeria / Libya 982 km, the border Algeria / Niger 956 km , between Algeria and Tunisia 965 km , totaling 5,838 km to watch. About 50 persons per km would nearly 291,900 soldiers which is both technically and financially impossible . Modern methods must be implemented. According to Dr Sam Perlo -Freeman Project Manager at SIPRI since 2002 , Algeria has increased its military spending by 170% . And in a survey published in Jeune Afrique published March 18, 2013 , comparing Morocco and Algeria , staffing , the Algerian army count total 317,000 men with 187,000 paramilitary forces , 175,000 Army, 14,000 Air Force and 6,000 in the navy.

Do not forget to add data at the last meeting of Interpol in Oran in September 2013 when the Human Resources Department (HRD) of the General Directorate of National Security ( DGNS ) currently manage a global workforce of more of 188,865 employees , including 169,499 officers including 10,310 women and 19,366 similar agents , a number that is expected to exceed 200,000 by the year 2014.

This budget is registered on behalf of the Ministry of Interior with a capital budget , in addition to the operation. Thus, because of its significant financial resources, but let us never forget mainly due to oil and not at work, posing the urgent problem of transition off oil to deal with the decline of the productive fabric , Algeria remains one markets more attractive defense in Africa. Between 2006 and 2010, the growth rate of military spending was about 21.4% , before stabilizing at 6.2% during the period 2013-2017 . The International Institute for Strategic Studies , based in Washington, ranked Algeria among the 10 countries in the world that spend the most on defense , and space and , in 8th place in the standings, after Saudi Arabia , Oman , Israel , Yemen, the United States and Jordan. According to another report by Strategic Defence Intelligence ( SDI ) , a platform for information and intelligence dedicated to the defense industry , Algeria is the 9th arms importer in the world with 46 % of total imports weapons in Africa during the period 2006-2010. Overall, according to a study released SIPRI ( portal.sipri.org ) , military spending has evolved as follows: 3.152 billion dollars in 2003 - ( 3.3% of PB) - 5712 2009 (3.8% of GDP) -6045 in 2010 (3.5% of GDP) -8652 2011 ( 4.4% of GDP) in 2012 -9104 (4.5% of GDP) and Algeria had provided 10.3 billion U.S. dollars military spending in 2013 which suppliers should be diversified, other than its traditional supplier , Russia, which it should be recalled that in the past a fraction of the Algerian foreign debt held by this country has been converted into military procurement .

The comparative analysis shows over the allocation of the overall budget in 2010 with 13.6% and 15.04% for the Ministry of the Interior , a total of 28.10% against 13.7% for the education and 6.80% for the Ministry of higher Education . This rate is 15.69% in 2012 and 13.50% for the Ministry of the Interior, the total -29.79 % against 11.81 % for education , 8.71% for higher education . Forecasts , we have 19.04% for 2013 and 13.06% for the Ministry of the Interior , in total 32.10% against 13.06% for education and 7.07% for higher education .

Optimize military spending in a planning law - 5.

As can be seen both U.S. and European relations developed between 2011/2013 , Algeria is a regional military power and a key country in the issue of security in the Sahel and in general , a major player in the context of international security because of its strategic location as a transit from North Africa to Europe.

The main drivers of the evolution of Algerian arms market , in recent years , are the fight against terrorism and against insurgency and the urgent need to modernize defense equipment, which we must not forget the recent terrorist attack complex Amenas gas forcing the Algerian state to additional security costs .

This increase in expense also meets the need of professionalization on new technologies of its workforce by improving the training according to international standards , the base being the human resource like any activity . An example , in addition to the Academy of Cherchell , Polytechnic Military School (EMP ) located in the town of Bordj El -Bahri , about twenty kilometers east of Algiers is a center of excellence in the four scientific disciplines that are taught and in which postgraduate students conducting research at the forefront of technology. It is understood that enters these expenses primarily replacing most of obsolete military equipment for the acquisition of new equipment for the Army , the Navy and the Air Force,

In the short term , tensions in the region, especially for the protection of its borders , the situation in Libya, Mali and incidentally terrorist actions on its border in Tunisia to Algeria have imposed additional costs. However, it is essential to go to a cost minimization. The analysis by Harvard Professor Michael Porter strategy "five forces" that determine the competitive structure of an industry of goods or services ( the bargaining power of customers, bargaining power of suppliers, the threat of substitute products or services , the potential threat of entrants in the market and the intensity of rivalry among competitors ) often shows that different actors Algerian low bargaining power supplier and a strong bargaining power of the customer, while the entrance gates on the Algerian market as economic enterprises that weapons are high.

Strategy and tactics distinguish front to paraphrase military parlance , these actions must be within the framework of a future institutional organization networks for greater efficiency, made ​​possible by new technologies. Also, these expenses, even necessary , should be targeted to distinguish the short and medium term, optimized in terms of efficiency fitting into the framework of a military program law over five years ( including the DGNS ) . But the objective is not to reduce the allocation of financial resources for development and factor around sustainable growth segments. In this context , military industry like what happens in most developed countries can contribute to the overall development. Actions are already underway such as mechanical engineering projects launched by the People's National Army ( ANP ) in partnership with the German giant Daimler to produce the first Mercedes Benz truck and bus plant Rouiba , the armored vehicle " Nimr " for the transport of troops to be built in Algeria between the group for the Promotion of Mechanical Engineering ( GPIM ) of the Ministry of Defence and the UAE group Tawazun which we must ensure a minimum level of integration 50% , found nowhere in the world an integration rate of 100 %.

These known as " military-industrial complex " actions have boosted in the past of the South Korean economy and currently boosts firms in the U.S. and many developed and emerging countries but within the scope of the standards of business profitability. As the objective is to reduce this significant expense and therefore the import bill through internal co- partnerships or collocations , a positive balance and currency transfer technological and managerial always referring to human resource , many of PMI- SMEs factor value added and job creation that can be created . According to a military official, speaking on the sidelines of the second edition of the " Achievements and Memory" exhibition, organized by the Department of National Defence ( about reported by the official news agency APS July 05, 2013) , military industry Algeria could , in the near future , replace the import .

In summary, the security to be effective must fit within an overall vision involving the population. Lasting stability can not be achieved without a genuine development assuming deep structural reforms . It is conditioned by a renewal of governance and enhancement of knowledge in order to densify the productive fabric cover to avoid problems through passive income distribution of hydrocarbons, which will also exhaustion. Today's security threats are named terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction , regional crises and disintegration of some states. Collective challenges , old and new are also water resources , poverty , disease , environment, being local, regional and global order .

Sustainable resolution involves recasting both international relations and the establishment of rule of law and democracy taking account of cultural anthropology , the Army to be placed in the context of this irreversible process. Faced with a changing world , both in terms of foreign policy, economic and defense related activities , with the latest happenings in the Sahel , on the borders of Algeria , facing the urgency of adaptation strategies and coordination , international and regional to act effectively on major events . These new challenges for Algeria, sub-segment of the continent Africa, exceed in importance and magnitude of the challenges she has faced so far. ademmebtoul@gmail.com

By Professor, Expert in International Strategic Management Dr. Abderrahmane Mebtoul

ANNEX

Military spending Algeria , 2003-2012

years
In current dollars (in millions) In constant dollars (millions)
[2011 base year ]
Percent of GDP
2003 2 206 3152 3.3
2004 2 802 3585 3.3
2005 2 925 3753 2.8
2006 3 094 3847 2.6
2007 3 946 4514 2.9
2008 5 172 5 259 3
2009 5 281 5712 3.8
2010 5 671 6045 3.5
2011 8 652 8652 4.4
2012 9 325 9104 4.5
Evolution of the share allocated to defense position relative to other budget items , 2010-2013 (%)

Budget items Year 2010 Fiscal Year 2011 Fiscal 2012 Fiscal Year 2013
Defense 14.8 15.04 15.69 19.04
12.21 13.06 13.5 13.6 Interior
Foreign Affairs 1 0.8 0.6 0.7
Education 13.7 11.81 16.5 14.49
Health 6.8 6.63 8.71 7.07
6.11 6.19 6.01 Higher Education 6.1
Source: SIPRI portal.sipri.org / pyblications / pages / Expenditures / country -search
L’armée et les forces de sécurité algériennes face aux nouveaux bouleversements géostratégiques